The hotel reservation form for the 26th Annual MFS Conference is now available online.
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7th Spring MFS Conference - A preliminary version of the conference program is now available online
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New Forthcoming Article at Multinational Finance Journal
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Forthcoming MFJ Article

Dynamic Autocorrelation and International Portfolio Allocation

Jyri Kinnunen, Hanken School of Economics, Finland
Minna Martikainen, Hanken School of Economics, Finland

We explore the relevance of dynamic autocorrelation in modeling expected returns and allocating funds between developed and emerging stock markets. Using stock market data for the US and Latin America, we find that autocorrelation in monthly returns vary with conditional volatility, implying some investors implement feedback trading strategies. Dynamic autocorrelation models fit the data considerably better than a conditional version of the zero-beta CAPM, while differences between models with an autoregressive term are modest. Investors can improve their portfolio optimization between developed and emerging stock markets by considering time-varying autocorrelation. The most drastic difference in portfolio performance is not due to allowing autocorrelation to vary over time, but realizing that stock returns are autocorrelated, especially in emerging stock markets.

Keywords: vautocorrelation; volatility; portfolio; international; emerging markets

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