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Published Articles for Year 2009
Multinational Finance Journal, 2009, vol. 13, no. 1/2, pp. 1-38 |
Peter Spencer , University of York, U.K.    Corresponding Author

This paper develops a macro-finance model of the yield curve and uses this to explain the behavior of the US Treasury market. Unlike previous macro-finance models which assume a homoscedastic error process and suppose that the one-period return is directly observable, I develop a general affine model which relaxes these assumptions. My empirical specification uses a single conditioning factor and is thus the macro-finance analogue of the EA1(N) specification of the mainstream finance literature. This model provides a decisive rejection of the standard EA0(N) macro-finance specification. The resulting specification provides a flexible 10-factor explanation of the behavior of the US yield curve, keying it in to the behavior of the macroeconomy.

Keywords : n/a
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Multinational Finance Journal, 2009, vol. 13, no. 1/2, pp. 39-54 |
Geoffrey Poitras , Simon Fraser University, Canada    Corresponding Author
Chris Veld , University of Stirling, U.K.
Yuriy Zabolotnyuk , Carleton University, Canada

The European put-call parity condition is used to estimate the early exercise premium for American currency options traded on the Philadelphia Stock Exchange. Using a sample of 331 pairs of call and put options with the same exercise price and time to expiration, evidence is provided for early exercise premiums that average 5.03% for put options and 4.60% for call options. The premiums for both call and put options are strongly related to the interest rate differential and time to expiration. These results have implications for the use of European option pricing models in the valuation of American options.

Keywords : European put-call parity; currency options; early exercise premium
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Multinational Finance Journal, 2009, vol. 13, no. 1/2, pp. 55-74 |
Andrew Adams , University of Edinburgh Business School, U.K.    Corresponding Author
Rajiv Bhatt , Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu India Pvt. Ltd., India
James Clunie , Scottish Widows Investment Partnership, U.K.

The recent sub-prime debacle has brought ‘innovative’ structured credit products such as collateralized debt obligations under severe criticism. The complexity of some structured finance securities and difficulties in understanding their risks has been a common theme. This paper argues that CDO-squared structures can be so complex as to make risk assessment difficult. By modeling a simplified CDO-squared structure using Monte Carlo simulation, two of the risks unique to such structures are examined: default location risk and overlap risk. Failure to take account of these risks during a distressed credit environment will result in greater than anticipated losses among senior CDO-squared tranches.

Keywords : collateralized debt obligation; CDO-squared; default location risk; overlap risk; Monte Carlo simulation
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Multinational Finance Journal, 2009, vol. 13, no. 1/2, pp. 75-102 |
Patrick Sentis , University Montpellier, France    Corresponding Author

The phenomena of IPO underpricing and underperformance are examined in the same rational model. In this model, underpricing is caused by the presence of uninformed investors. Low-type firms carry out an IPO under the same conditions as high-type firms. Instead of investing by themselves, the latter prefer to merge with a bidder, which entails their delisting from the market. The behavior of these firms provides a rational explanation for the underperformance phenomenon since only low-type firms remain on the market. Initial preliminary findings are consistent with the basic idea of the model. We show that when mergers occur, the monthly average return of the remaining firms is significantly negative, whereas the monthly average return is not significantly different from zero for the months without mergers. This result suggests that mergers induce a depreciation effect on the remaining firms and could be a source of underperformance.

Keywords : initial public offerings; underpricing; underperformance; delisted; takeover; merger
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Multinational Finance Journal, 2009, vol. 13, no. 1/2, pp. 103-134 |
D. Johannes Jüttner , Macquarie University, Sydney    Corresponding Author
Wayne Leung , Macquarie University, Sydney

This study examines on the basis of economic theory the determinants of exchange rate volatilities for a large number of currencies. We relate daily changes in GARCH(1,1) volatilities of exchange rates to the volatility changes of several of their presumed fundamental economic determinants in the context of a portfolio balance model. The use of high-frequency data limits the choice of the explanatory economic variables that can be included in empirical estimates. The first differences of GARCH(1,1) volatilities of share and bond price indices reflect portfolio trading decisions in corresponding markets for both assets. In the same vein, first differences of the gold price volatility, as an additional determinant, are related to exchange rate volatilities of two commodity currencies in the sample. The panel data estimates, using the Seemingly Unrelated Regression technique, produce coefficients with the expected signs and statistical significance. The results of our study enhance our understanding of high-frequency currency volatility changes for 19 currencies beyond the purview of announcement effects in the event studies framework.

Keywords : Exchange rate volatilities; volatility relationships; GARCH modelling
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Multinational Finance Journal, 2009, vol. 13, no. 1/2, pp. 135-154 |
Sven-Olov Daunfeldt , The Ratio Institute, Sweden    Corresponding Author
Carina Selander , Umeå University, Sweden
Magnus Wikström , Umeå University, Sweden

The purpose of the paper is to study the effect of taxation on dividend payments and ex-dividend price-changes in Sweden during 1991-1995. Tax changes in Sweden during the 1990s were implemented in such a way that they provide an opportunity to include direct measures of the tax-treatment of dividends and capital gains in the empirical analysis, in contrast to previous studies. The results indicate that tax-reforms can have large effects on dividend payments, while the effects on ex-dividend price-changes are less conclusive.

Keywords : censoring; dividend; ex-dividend; taxation
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Multinational Finance Journal, 2009, vol. 13, no. 3/4, pp. 155-188 |
Daniella Acker , University of Bristol, U.K.    Corresponding Author
Nigel W. Duck , University of Bristol, U.K.

We investigate the effects of bull and bear markets on correlations between developed and emerging country equity returns, and on the benefits of combining international markets in a portfolio. Contrary to most other studies we find that correlations fall in both bull and bear markets, although far more in the former; that emerging markets provide both additional diversification benefits for investors in developed markets and, especially, some protection during bear markets.

Keywords : International equity markets; correlations; portfolio choice
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Multinational Finance Journal, 2009, vol. 13, no. 3/4, pp. 189-208 |
Ariful Hoque , Curtin University of Technology, Australia    Corresponding Author
Felix Chan , Curtin University of Technology, Australia
Meher Manzur , Curtin University of Technology, Australia

This paper presents a general optimization framework to forecast put and call option prices by exploiting the volatility of the options prices. The approach is flexible in that different objective functions for predicting the underlying volatility can be modified and adapted in the proposed framework. The framework is implemented empirically for four major currencies, including Euro. The forecast performance of this framework is compared with those of the Multiplicative Error Model (MEM) of implied volatility and the GARCH(1,1). The results indicate that the proposed framework is capable of producing reasonable accurate forecasts for put and call prices.

Keywords : Foreign currency options; implied volatility; optimal volatility; multiplicative error model; GARCH model
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Multinational Finance Journal, 2009, vol. 13, no. 3/4, pp. 209-228 |
Isaac T. Tabner , University of Stirling, U.K.    Corresponding Author

Identifying a suitable benchmark is essential when testing asset pricing models, measuring the performance of active investors, or providing market proxy portfolios for passive investors. Concern that increased domination of capitalization weighted stock indices by a few large firms will lead to inefficient portfolio diversification is leading some investors and researchers to argue that index providers should adjust their weighting methods to limit concentration. This study tests and rejects the hypothesis that concentration arising as a result of capitalization weights in the FTSE 100 Index increases risk, either during normal market conditions or during negative tail events in the return distribution. On the contrary, during the left tail of the return distribution, the equally weighted portfolio of FTSE 100 Index constituents exhibits higher risk and lower returns than the capitalization weighted FTSE 100 Index portfolio, a finding consistent with variations of the CAPM that allow for time varying risk premia.

Keywords : stock index benchmarks; incremental returns; incremental standard deviation; portfolio diversification; capitalization weights; index concentration; performance measurement
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Multinational Finance Journal, 2009, vol. 13, no. 3/4, pp. 229-264 |
Frieda Rikkers , Tilburg University, Netherlands    Corresponding Author
André E. Thibeault , Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School, Belgium

The objective of this research is to develop a structural form probability of default model for small and medium-sized enterprises, dealing with the methodological issues which arise in the modelling of small commercial loan portfolios. Other motivations are to provide an extensive overview of the characteristics of SMEs, and to provide a list of characteristics for an SME PD model, e.g. time and cost efficiency, broad applicability, limited data requirements, and powerful in predicting default. The structural form model is developed and tested on a unique dataset of private firm’s bank loans of a Dutch bank. The results are promising; the model output differs significantly between defaulted and non-defaulted firms. The structural form model can be used on its own, or as an additional variable in a credit risk model. A second PD model is developed using logistic regression with a number of financial ratios, including the structural form measure. This variable is significant in default prediction of SMEs and has some additional predictive power, next to the popular financial ratios. Overall, the results indicate that the structural form model is a good indicator for default of SMEs.

Keywords : SME; probability of default; structural form credit risk model; Basel II
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Multinational Finance Journal, 2009, vol. 13, no. 3/4, pp. 265-292 |
James Clunie , Scottish Widows Investment Partnership, U.K.    Corresponding Author
Peter Moles , University of Edinburgh Business School, U.K.
Tatiana Pyatigorskaya , Merrill Lynch Wealth Management, U.K.

This study fills an important gap in the literature on loss realization aversion. It shows how a ‘sophisticated’ sub-set of investors, namely short-sellers, react to losses. Using daily data on stock lending, we estimate the average price at which short positions were initiated, thus permitting a study of short-sellers’ responses to their own book losses. We find that short-sellers close their positions in response to losses and not simply in response to rising share prices. This is a key result and a distinction from findings in related research. We conclude that short-sellers do not exhibit an aversion to realizing losses, but instead accept their losses or ‘mistakes’ systematically.

Keywords : n/a
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Multinational Finance Journal, 2009, vol. 13, no. 3/4, pp. 293-321 |
James B. McDonald , Brigham Young University, USA    Corresponding Author
Richard A. Michelfelder , Rutgers University, USA
Panayiotis Theodossiou , Cyprus University of Technology, Cyprus

Robust estimation techniques based on symmetric probability distributions are often substituted for OLS to obtain efficient regression parameters with thick-tail distributed data. The empirical, simulation and theoretical results in this paper show that with skewed distributed data, symmetric robust estimation techniques produce biased regression intercepts. This paper evaluates robust methods in estimating the capital asset pricing model and shows skewed stock returns data used with symmetric robust estimation techniques produce biased alphas. The results support the recommendation that robust estimation using the skewed generalized T family of distributions may be used to obtain more efficient and unbiased estimates with skewness.

Keywords : CAPM; quasi-maximum likelihood estimator; robust estimator; skewed generalized T
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